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Active management to find yield in fixed income

Global Fixed Income

BNP Paribas Asset Management
 

 

 

Unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures by central banks and governments have installed a low-yield/low-volatility regime in developed bond markets. As investors search hard for yield, senior investment strategist Daniel Morris discusses the prospects for fixed income markets with Dominick DeAlto, chief investment officer fixed income.

How sustainable are the major increases in sovereign debt burdens?

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began earlier this year, central bank purchases of government bonds have driven yields, and market volatility, ever lower. As a result, 30-year UK Gilt yields are now on par with those on Japanese government bonds (JGBs). Ten-year US Treasury yields have been remarkably stable, moving in a narrow 20bp range for most of the quarter even as equity markets posted one of the biggest gains in decades. Negative yielding debt has never been more prevalent in global bond markets.

As governments have increased their bond issuance significantly to finance the economic rescue packages, central banks have more than kept up. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s ownership of Treasury bonds has risen to levels not seen since the 1970s, though it is still well behind Japan, or even Germany.

As to how sustainable sovereign debt burdens are, the three most important criteria I see are the following:

  • What is the near-term outlook for the pandemic? If the current infection and death rates persist, and there is no vaccine, governments will be forced to provide further support for their economies. Renewed fiscal spending will keep yields low, or drive them even lower. Of course, some governments – in the US, Japan – have the ability to print money to deflate debt, so more issuance is arguably less of an issue in those countries. Other sovereign issuers may struggle.
  • The second question is what will be the ultimate economic impact of the pandemic. The global economy was already weakening when the virus hit. If economic growth remains weak, the unprecedented coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities will continue, keeping rates low. Just recently, we had the eight anniversary of Mario Draghi’s ‘Bumblebee’ monetary policy comments during the euro crisis. With last week’s agreement on a European Union (EU) recovery fund, we are seeing the fiscal side of that whatever-it-takes approach. Overall, we expect central banks to continue to keep down borrowing costs – and yields. In other words, central bank buying and other demand should ensure that the low-rate regime will be maintained.
  • Inevitably, there will come a time when high levels of fiscal spending, and with them yield levels, become unsustainable for some countries. When investors start focusing on fiscal balance sheet again, the result will be a rise in sovereign credit risk.

Exhibit 1:

CHART 27072020 ENG 1
Data as at 10 July 2020. Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Asset Management

CHART 27072020 ENG 2
Data as at 10 July 2020. Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Asset Management

 

Surely, the risk of delinquencies and defaults has risen. Companies cannot just borrow their way to prosperity. But this is not what we are seeing in the markets. There, pricing is based on a 3% default rate, while the consensus of the big three rating agencies is 9%. Something is out of whack here. That said, investors should take a differentiated view of the corporate bond market: some issuers are at greater risk, but there are also sectors and companies that have not borrowed excessively. Those are the issuers we prefer.

Where do you see value in fixed income?

I believe risk premia for Italian, Greek, Portuguese and Spanish government bonds versus core eurozone bonds can fall further. These ‘peripheral’ eurozone countries stand to benefit the most from the support measures by the EU, the European Central Bank (ECB) and even the US Federal Reserve. There is support now in the form of the EU recovery fund and ongoing support from the ECB through its bond-buying programme.

There is also still some reasonable risk/reward potential in the higher-rated investment-grade segment.

As for emerging market debt, this has suffered significantly in the downturn, causing risk premiums to widen in an initial move. These spreads have now come down a long way, back to pre-crisis levels, but there are some troubling phenomena: the US-China tensions, uncertainty over the US presidential election outcome, oil price volatility and of course COVID-19. All these risks could be weighing on the rally in emerging market debt. So we are approaching this segment from a market-neutral position and we are looking for value in long/short trades.

In local currency emerging market debt, we see room for incremental gains, for example, because we expect further US dollar weakness, but this segment should also benefit from (the scope for) central bank policy easing and from demand from investors looking for alternatives to the negative yield on developed market debt. One example would be Argentina, which has come up with a bondholder-friendly debt-restructuring plan, which give its bonds some upside potential.

Overall, though, I would say that you have to be a bond picker in the current market and look for issuers and sectors where there is value rather than taking on market risk.


 

This material is issued by BNP Paribas Asset Management USA, Inc. (“BNPPAM USA”)*. In Australia, BNPPAM USA is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the financial services. BNPPAM USA is regulated by the SEC under US laws, which differ from Australian laws. This material is distributed in Australia by BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT Australia Limited ABN 78 008 576 449, AFSL 223418 .

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1. an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell, nor shall it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever or

2. investment advice.

Opinions expressed are current as of the date appearing in this document only. This document is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. It is presented only to provide information on investment strategies and current financial market trends. The analyses and opinions contained in this document are those of BNPPAM USA, and are based upon information obtained by BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT USA, Inc. from sources which are believed to be reliable. BNPPAM USA provides no assurance as to the completeness or accuracy of the information contained in this document. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. Investment strategies which utilize foreign exchange may entail increased risk due to political and economic uncertainties. The views expressed in this document may change at any time. Information is provided as of the date indicated and BNPPAM USA assumes no duty to update such information. There is no guarantee, either express or implied, that these investment strategies work under all market conditions. Readers should independently evaluate the information presented and reliance upon such information is at their sole discretion.

The information contained herein (and any calculation of targeted/expected returns) includes estimates and assumptions and involves significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis. No representations are made as to the accuracy of such estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that actual events will not differ materially from those estimated or assumed. In the event that any of the estimates or assumptions used in this presentation prove to be untrue, results are likely to vary from those discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The value of investments and the income derived from those investments may fluctuate over time such that the value of a portfolio at any given point in time may be more or less than its original value.

*BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT USA, Inc. is registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.

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